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外汇交易中的“降龙十八缺四掌”

外汇交易中的“降龙十八缺四掌”

介绍一篇外文资料,列举了外汇交易中的主要策略。数了数共有十四种,估计是因为作者少了四个鸡PG供应给洪七公,所以没学全十八掌。原文如下,译文附后。

How many kinds of main strategies are there in FOREX trading?

There may be dozens of strategies in Forex trading. Let’s just talk about the roots.

What is Nature Of Market?
What is Fundamental Trading?
What is Hedge?
What is Arbitrage?
What is Carry Trading?
What is Martingale?
What is Anti-Martingale?
What is Grid?
What is Day Trading?
What is Scalping?
What is Break-Out Trading?
What is Pivot?
What is News Trading?
What is Trend Following?

Nature Of Market:
Every thing in the universe has its NATURE. So is Forex market. So is every currencies pair in this market. For example, GBP/JPY always moves faster, and its wave range is longer than other pairs, such as a hundred pips during a day or even a hour. EUR/GBP generally waves narrowly several pips only within a day. For American, EUR/USD and GBP/USD like to sleep in day and dance at night. AUD/USD and NZD/USD look like twin, they commonly act in the same style, if one of they goes north, another one does not like to go south. But EUR/USD and USD/CHF are doomed to be enemy, while one of them flies up like a hydrogen balloon, the counterpart mostly will drop like a lead ball. And so on, so on.
Once we find this kind of "Nature of Market", we can develop and figure out some strategies for particular currency pairs, just follow their nature, predict their moving direction and range. Then we will get our own trading strategy and system.


外汇交易主要策略集锦

外汇交易中也许有不下几十种交易策略,我们只从根上谈起。

1、市场天性

宇宙万物皆有其天性。外汇市场亦然。外汇市场中的每一组货币对也是如此。例如:相比起其他货币对,GBP/JPY总是运动得更快,波动范围更宽,一天甚至一小时内波幅可达一百点。而EUR/GBP一天内通常只有几个点的波幅。对美国人来说,EUR/USD和GBP/USD似乎是愿意白天睡觉晚上跳舞。AUD/USD和NZD/USD看上去像双胞胎,他们通常行为一致,如果其中一个上涨,另外一个很难下跌。但是EUR/USD和USD/CHF注定是敌人,当其中一个像氢气球一样飞上天空时,另一个却会像个铅球一样坠落。等等,诸如此类。

一旦我们发现了这类“市场的天性”,我们不难针对特定的货币对构思和开发出交易策略,跟随他们的天性,预计出它们的运动方向和行程。这样,我们就有了自己的交易策略和系统。

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Fundamental Trading:

In Forex market, many professional analysts like to use a kind of method to predict the future. It is so-called “Fundamental Analysis”. Based on this method, they develop many kinds of strategies to trade Forex. These are strategies of forecasting the future price movements of currencies based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the foreign currencies.
If you like to try Fundamental Trading, you need learn and understand a lot of finance knowledge. Actually, not only finance knowledge, you need to be interested at many things of this world, including politics, economy, geography, culture, diplomacy, even military affairs.  And you need to study the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. For example, when the USA’s GDP or employment report is strong, you begin to get a fairly clear picture: the general health of America’s economy is good. So the US dollar should be stronger than other currencies. But how far can the US dollar go? Fundamental Trading may not answer this question very accurately. You may need to come up with other precise tools as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.


基本面交易法

在外汇市场中,很多职业分析员喜欢用一种方法去预测将来,这就是所谓的“基本面分析”。基于这种方法,他们开发了很多外汇交易策略。这些策略研究经济、政治、环境和其它相关因素与统计数据,这些因素构成了外汇的基本供求关系基础,从而预测出货币的价格走势。

假如你喜欢试一试基本面交易法的话,就需要学习与明白很多金融知识。事实上,不局限于金融知识,你需要了解这个世界的很多事情,包括政治、经济、地理、文化、外交、甚至军事。同时你需要研究影响各个经济体的基本核心元素。例如:美国的GDP或者就业报告数据强劲,你的脑海里就会浮现出一幅清晰的图像:美国经济的总体情况是健康的。这样美元就应该比其他货币强劲。但是美元究竟能走多远?基本面分析法很难对这个问题给出精确的答案。你也许需要结合其他的精细工具尽可能地把这些信息转化为进点与出点,这才是有效的交易策略。
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Hedge:

In finance, a hedge is an investment that is taken out specifically to reduce the risk in another investment. Hedging is a strategy designed to minimize exposure to an unwanted business risk, while still allowing the business to profit from an investment activity.

In FOREX, there are two kinds of similar "hedging" strategies:

1, Buy and Sell the same currencies pair, same lots, same timing. Then let it go. While one of those orders goes north, the counterpart will go south. After the winner takes profit, we can wait for the loser turning around. In a yo-yo market, this method works well.

For example, buy 2 lots GBP/USD at 2.0003, at the same time sell 2 lots GBP/USD at 1.9997. While the rate rises up to 2.0053, we close the buy order and take profit 50 pips. Now, the sell order will draw down around 50 pips. Let’s wait for the rate falling down, it will fall down usually, especially in yo-yo market environment. If the rate drops down to 2.0037, close the sell order, the sell order will lose 40 pips. Does it hurt? No. Don’t forget the 50 pips we have taken at the buy order. Totally, we can get 50-40=10 pips. Furthermore, if the rate keeps falling, let’s say down to 2.0027, we can take 50-30=20 pips, etc.

Some people would doubt it... doesn't this "strategy" sound like hedging flat for nothing, just paying double spread? Why bother? Well, they are right, because we forgot mentioning the key point: timing of closing orders. When to close the winning order to set a foundation and when to close the losing order to lock the profit, there are some tricks inside. Experienced traders use technical analysis skills to decide this vital timing. Believe it or not, those experienced traders say that this method helps them screening false signals out.

This kind of "Yo-Yo Hedge" can work at any currencies pair.

2, Buy (or sell) unequal lots of special currency pairs and buy unequal quantities of another kinds of currency pairs which usually move in the opposite direction. This seems a "Semi-Hedge" trading strategy. It is created based on “Correlation” between some particular currency pairs. So it is not suitable for every currencies pair.

Actually, this kind of hedge has another feature: earning SWAP! You earn interest daily on the held position which can yield up to 50% per year of your full account balance.

There are several pairs can do it. Such as EUR/USD Vs. USD /CHF, GBP/USD Vs. USD/CHF, AUD/USD Vs. NZD/USD, EUR/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY.

Let's take the EUR/USD and the CHF/USD pairs.

These pairs are historically negatively correlative 93-98% of the . That is when one pair goes up the other goes down, and vice versa, up to 98% of the . In a high leverage account (as high as 400:1 or 500:1), you could earn 50% SWAP interest in a year. How? Let's say you have $5,000 in your account and a 10% risk margin set. If the net interest we receive is 1.25% annually, this 1.25% interest will be enlarged to 50% per annum, by the 400:1 leverage.

And, this return does not include the buy low/sell high profits.

But, if the base of this kind of hedge collapses, it means the “Correlation” does not exist any more, for example the “Correlation” drops under 50% or lower, there will be a disaster.



对冲:

在金融领域,“对冲”是一种用来减低另一种投资的风险的投资。对冲策略有助于减小暴露于意外的业务风险的可能性,同时继续保持该业务的获利性。

在外汇市场中,有两种类似“对冲”的策略:

1、同时买进和卖出同样数量的同一货币对。然后让它们自由运行。当其中一个单子上涨,对应的另一个单子就会下降。对盈利者提取利润后,我们等待亏损者反转。在一个上下反复震荡的市场里,这一招很管用。

例如:买进两手GBP/USD于2.0003,同时卖出两手GBP/USD于1.9997。当汇价升至2.0053时,我们结清买单并获利50点。现在,卖单跌去了50点,让我们等待汇率下跌,通常它会回荡,尤其是在震荡行情中。当汇率跌回至2.0037时,结清卖单,此一卖单将损失40点。亏惨了吧?不,别忘了在买单里我们已经提走了50点。总计,我们可以收获50-40=10点。更进一步,如果汇价继续下跌,比如说跌到2.0027,我们可以收获50-30=20点,等等。

一些人可能会怀疑……这种“对冲”听起来像是白白抵消了,什么也没得到,还付了双倍的点差?为什么多此一举?嗯,他们是对的,因为我们忘了说关键点:结单的时机。什么时候该结掉盈利单奠定获利基础,以及什么时候该结掉亏损单锁定总利润,那是要讲些诀窍的。有经验的交易员使用技术分析技巧去选择这个生死攸关的时机。不管你是否相信,那些老油条们说这种方法可以帮助他们筛掉虚假信号。

这种“震荡对冲”适用于任何货币对。

2、买入(或卖出)特殊数量的特定货币对,再买入特殊数量的另一种通常反向运动的货币对。这似乎该称为一种“准对冲”策略。它是基于某些特定的货币对之间的“相似性”原理所创造出来的。事实上,这种对冲有另外一个特性:可以挣利息!每天持仓积累下来的利息可以产生高达全部帐户余额50%的年利。

有几种货币对可以做此类对冲,比如:EUR/USD Vs. USD /CHF, GBP/USD Vs. USD/CHF, AUD/USD Vs. NZD/USD, EUR/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY, GBP/JPY Vs. CHF/JPY.
以EUR/USD 和 CHF/USD 为例:

这些货币对在历史上反向相似性为93~98%,即一对向上,另一对则向下,反之亦然,高达98%的时间都如此。在一个高杠杆的帐户里(高达 400:1 或 500:1),你可以挣到一年50%的利息。怎么挣?假设你帐号里有5000元,用10%的保证金去投资。如果收到的净年利率是1.25%,这1.25%的利息将被400倍的杠杆放大至50%每年。

而且,这个回报还没有包括低买高卖产生的高利润。

但是,一旦这种对冲的基础崩塌了,即“相似性”消失了,比如说相似性跌到了50%或者更低,那就是一场灾难。
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Arbitrage:

Some people call “Arbitrage” as a risk free strategy. But other people call it as a trick which looks like the cat pawing chestnuts from a fire. But in theory, its risk is minimum in deed. We introduce three types of arbitrage strategies here:

1,  Triangle Arbitrage: Searching for two highly fast-moving pairs (like EUR/USD and USD/JPY), the price of a not-so-fast moving pair like EUR/JPY should always be derived by multiplying (or dividing, etc) the fast-moving pairs. So for example, if EUR/USD is 1.4871 and USD/JPY is 108.24, the logical price of EUR/JPY should be 1.2 x 120 = 160.96. But at the same , the real EUR/JPY rate is 160.90. The slower moving pair lags behind the logical price, then profit opportunity comes.

In practice currencies are quoted with a bid ask spread, so a trader should be careful that he is actually buying at the quoted ask price, and selling at the quoted bid price. Other transaction costs, such as commissions, might also invalidate the apparent free lunch.

More pairs:

AUD/CAD CAD/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CAD GBP/CAD GBP/AUD
AUD/CAD USD/CAD AUD/USD
AUD/CHF CHF/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CHF GBP/CHF GBP/AUD
AUD/CHF USD/CHF AUD/USD
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/AUD
AUD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/AUD
AUD/JPY USD/JPY AUD/USD
AUD/USD GBP/USD GBP/AUD
AUD/USD USD/CAD AUD/CAD
AUD/USD USD/CHF AUD/CHF
AUD/USD USD/JPY AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CAD
CAD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CAD
CAD/JPY USD/JPY USD/CAD
CHF/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF
CHF/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/CHF EUR/CHF

EUR/AUD AUD/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/AUD AUD/USD EUR/USD
EUR/AUD GBP/AUD EUR/GBP
EUR/CAD AUD/CAD EUR/AUD
EUR/CAD GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD USD/CAD EUR/USD
EUR/CHF AUD/CHF EUR/AUD
EUR/CHF GBP/CHF EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF USD/CHF EUR/USD
EUR/GBP GBP/AUD EUR/AUD
EUR/GBP GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/GBP GBP/CHF EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP GBP/USD EUR/USD
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY USD/JPY EUR/USD
EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD

2, Hedging Arbitrage:

This technique is the safest ever, and the most profitable of all hedging techniques while keeping minimal risks. This technique uses the arbitrage of roll over interest rates (SWAP) between two brokers.

One broker which pays or charges roll over interest at end of day, and the other should not charge or pay this kind of roll over SWAP interest. The main idea about this type of Hedge Arbitrage is to open a position of currency (Fore example, the highest SWAP GBP/JPY) at a broker
which will pay you a high interest for every night the position is carried, and to open a reverse of that position for the same currency with the broker that does not charge interest for carrying the trade. This way you will gain the interest or SWAP that is credited to your account, risk-free.

3, Netting Arbitrage:

The main idea behind the strategy is, using differences between cross rates (such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP) at different markets.

For example, suppose you had opened the following positions:
buy 1 lot EUR/USD at 1.4867;
sell 1 lot EUR/GBP at 0.7600;
and sell 0.76 lot GBP/USD at 1.9566.

The netting/clearing gives the following results:

Long EUR from the first pair and short EUR from the second pair gives zero exposure in EUR.
Long position in GBP from the second pair and short position from the third pair gives zero exposure in GBP.
Short position from the first pair ($148,670.00) in USD and long position from the third pair ($195,860.00*0.76) in USD gives you $183.60 profit without open positions and exposures. Simple? Not really for small traders, may be for those "big brothers" only. Because it is really hard to play spread, slippage, stop loss hunting or so on games against brokers.



套利交易

一些人把“套利交易”称为无风险的策略。而另一些人却把它形容为火中取栗。但在理论上,它的风险确实是最小的。我们在此介绍三种套利交易策略。

1、三角套利法:找两种移动非常快的货币对,(比如EUR/USD 和 USD/JPY),另一种移动不那么快的货币对(比如EUR/JPY)价格应该总是那两对快速对的乘积(或除商)。例如:假设EUR/USD 是 1.4871, USD/JPY 是 108.24, 那么逻辑上EUR/JPY应该是 1.2 x 120 = 160.96,但是此时EUR/JPY 的实际价格是 160.90。慢速对的市场价落后于逻辑价,获利的机会就来了。

在实践中货币的报价总是有点差的,所以交易者应该小心地以叫价买入,以给价卖出。其它的交易成本,例如佣金也要考虑在内。世上并没有免费的午餐。

更多的三角套利货币对:
AUD/CAD CAD/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CAD GBP/CAD GBP/AUD
AUD/CAD USD/CAD AUD/USD
AUD/CHF CHF/JPY AUD/JPY
AUD/CHF GBP/CHF GBP/AUD
AUD/CHF USD/CHF AUD/USD
AUD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/AUD
AUD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/AUD
AUD/JPY USD/JPY AUD/USD
AUD/USD GBP/USD GBP/AUD
AUD/USD USD/CAD AUD/CAD
AUD/USD USD/CHF AUD/CHF
AUD/USD USD/JPY AUD/JPY
CAD/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CAD
CAD/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CAD
CAD/JPY USD/JPY USD/CAD
CHF/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF
CHF/JPY GBP/JPY GBP/CHF
EUR/AUD AUD/CHF EUR/CHF

EUR/AUD AUD/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/AUD AUD/USD EUR/USD
EUR/AUD GBP/AUD EUR/GBP
EUR/CAD AUD/CAD EUR/AUD
EUR/CAD GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD USD/CAD EUR/USD
EUR/CHF AUD/CHF EUR/AUD
EUR/CHF GBP/CHF EUR/GBP
EUR/CHF USD/CHF EUR/USD
EUR/GBP GBP/AUD EUR/AUD
EUR/GBP GBP/CAD EUR/CAD
EUR/GBP GBP/CHF EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY
EUR/GBP GBP/USD EUR/USD
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY USD/JPY EUR/USD
EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP
EUR/USD USD/JPY EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY USD/JPY GBP/USD

2、对冲套利法

这是所有对冲技术中最安全、在保持最小风险的同时最获利的技术。这项技术利用两个经纪商之间的滚动利率进行套利交易。

一个交易商在每个交易日结束时会支付或收取滚动利息,而另一个交易商并不支付或收取滚动利率。这类对冲套利交易的主要原理是在付出高利息的经纪商处开仓(比如利息最高的GBP/JPY)并持续过夜,同时在不收取利息的经纪商处开一个反向的仓。这个办法你会持续不断地收到利息,零风险。

3、编网套利法

此策略的主要创意是:利用不同市场中的交叉盘汇价的差异性。

例如:假设你开了下列仓位:
买入 1 手 EUR/USD,价位 1.4867;
卖出 1 手 EUR/GBP 价位 0.7600;
再卖出 0.76 手 GBP/USD 价位 1.9566。

编网/清算给出下列结果:

从第一对中买入EUR同时在第二对中卖出EUR,抵消了EUR。
在第二对中买入GBP同时在第三对中卖出,抵消了GBP。
在第一对中卖出$148,670.00 USD又在第三对中买入$195,860.00*0.76 USD,纯获利$183.60,并且没有仓位暴露在外。简单吧?对散户来说可不简单,也许只对那些“大佬”们才适用。因为实战中散户很难在点差、滑点、恶意止损等把戏中战胜经纪商。
温良恭俭让
智信仁勇严
 

回复:外汇交易中的“降龙十八缺四掌”

欧元依然强劲,,,美》日依然疲软,。。中线如此,。
 

回复:外汇交易中的“降龙十八缺四掌”

楼主还有吗,学习了,谢谢
 
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